Former President Trump is still the dominant figure in the Republican Party but his stranglehold is loosening.
Trump-backed candidates have had a mixed record in GOP primaries so far this cycle, with high-profile losses in Georgia, Nebraska and a key South Carolina district undercutting many other wins.
The work of the House Select Committee on Jan. 6 also places Trump’s role in the insurrection squarely in the spotlight.
To be sure, Trump leads early 2024 polls by a wide margin. But there is no guarantee that the ever-unpredictable Trump will enter the race. And there is a growing consensus among Republican insiders that, if he does so, he will face a serious challenge.
So, if the 2024 GOP nominee ends up being someone other than Trump, whom might it be?
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
DeSantis is Trump’s most serious rival at this early stage.
The Florida governor has a multilayered appeal. Conservatives loved his pushback against mask and vaccine mandates during the pandemic. He has embraced the culture wars with vigor, including his advocacy of legislation that liberal critics dubbed the “Don’t Say Gay” bill.
The mere fact that DeSantis sparks such ire from left-leaning voters is almost certainly an asset in a GOP primary.
More concretely, DeSantis is a prodigious fundraiser. He surpassed $100 million in his reelection war-chest this spring.
Some figures close to Trump believe DeSantis could be scared off, and would be reluctant to enter a head-to-head race with the former president.
Commentaires